Here are the links I promised in my article, more to come later.
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/the-wire/2009/09/09/fact-check-obama-uses-iffy-math-on-deficit-pledge/
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9924/12-18-KeyIssues.pdf
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem#Example_1:_Drug_testing
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